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SaaS

3 ways to improve renewal rates

3 ways to improve renewal rates

Whether we're talking about churn, retention or renewal rates, the fundamental aim is the same: keep the revenue you already have.

The gravity of this challenge can not be overstated: if you aren't able to improve your renewal rates to a sustainable level, your business will bleed out and die.

Okay, maybe that was a bit dramatic but you get the point: the stakes are high. Failing to improve renewal rates can result it:

  • Decelerating growth

  • Poor unit economics

  • A battalion of former customers that never found value in your product and talk about it

  • Low employee morale

  • Severe fundraising problems

  • Bankruptcy

Over the last 10 years, the proliferation of software solutions, business models, and pricing strategies has resulted in a plethora of new revenue retention metrics, so let's first align on our terminology. I am defining renewal rate as:

Renewal Rate = 100% - Lost ACV/(Lost ACV + Total Renewed ACV)

[ACV: Annual Contract Value]

Let's do an example where we have $5M ACV up for renewal in Q1-2017 and your team is able to successfully renew $4.6M of it, but alas $400k is lost to the churn monster:

Renewal Rate = 100% - Lost ACV/(Lost ACV + Total Renewed ACV)

Renewal Rate = 100% - $400k/($400k + $4.6M)

Renewal Rate = 100% - $400k/$5M

Renewal Rate = 100% - 8%

Renewal Rate = 92%

Easy enough, right? Good. Related to this, if you're interested in seeing all the different ways that SaaS companies report these metrics to the Street, I highly recommend bookmarking Pacific Crest's report: Public SaaS Company Disclosure Metrics for Retention and Renewal Rates.

It's become fashionable to report on "net" revenue metrics. "Net" metrics are created by simply combining two numbers, typically expansion and churn. The risk here is that expansion from existing accounts can mask a churn problem. Or as I like to say, "Nets can cover things up."

Therefore, "net" metrics are out of scope for this article as they increase the complexity of something simple: keeping the revenue you already have.

3 Ways to Improve Renewal Rates

  1. "Screen the team." This strategy has to do with the rigor your company applies to screening customer teams during the sales process. Given the hundreds of software options in the crowded cloud, the real battles aren't being fought over technology, but rather program resources. Similar to organizing an effective sports team, your Sales Engineers and Account Executives must evaluate:

    • Does this potential customer have the right players on the field?

    • If not, how do we make a business case for additional resources whether that be internal or external agency help?

    • Do they have access to developer resources? If so, how many hours per week? How many sprints per release? How many stories per epic? Specificity is key here.

    • Who is going to own the day-to-day adoption and evolution of the program to use your software, i.e. who is the program manager?

    • Does the potential customer have strong executive sponsorship and a desire to make this work?

  2. "ROC your renewals." If you aren't familiar with ROC curves, now is a good time to start. The goal of this strategy is to perform data science analysis to identify the 1-2 customer attributes and/or behaviors that are highly correlated with retention success, e.g. renewal rates, and then mobilizing your entire company—marketing, sales, customer success, design, engineering, everyone—to prioritize and improve these metrics:

  3. "Pay the retention piper." Incentives matter. No matter how inspirational your company or product vision is, the behavior of your employees are primarily driven by how they are compensated. If your Account Executives are comp'd 100% on growth, they will spend 100% of their time closing new business (and 0% on retention). If your Customer Success Managers are comp'd 100% on usage metrics, they will spend the vast majority of their time on improving usage (and little time on lead generation, customer references, etc). 

 

 

What the Twilio IPO means for Customer Success

What the Twilio IPO means for Customer Success

What can we learn from the most successful SaaS IPO of 2016?

A lot.

The Twilio IPO has two powerful lessons for all of us, especially Customer Success folks:

  1. Net expansion is king. Boasting 155% dollar-based net expansion, Twilio was able to readily sell shares to willing buyers at a handsome premium. Investors really care about this.

  2. Customer stories are compelling. Twilio lets their happy customers do the talking which creates an undeniable Go-To-Market competitive advantage.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's first acknowledge the recent health of the SaaS IPO market:

"Scared and shitty," says one institutional investor when describing the SaaS IPO market. If this trend were to continue, we're looking at the worst SaaS IPO year in six years. Yikes.

But then came Twilio. . .

Bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, Twilio filed its S-1 on May 26th, 2016. But this wasn't just any S-1. This was one of the most unique S-1s we've ever seen (check it out here).

Why was it so unique?

1. They lead with net retention.

Literally. Before you even get to the f*&%$ Table of Contents, Twilio hits you with this image:

Source: Twilio S-1. DBT commentary: "strong to quite strong"

Revenue growth, sure. Active customer growth, join the club. But 155% net expansion?!

OOHH YEAAHHHH [picture Randy Savage saying this, naturally]

155% dollar-based net expansion means Twilio's customers are expanding 55% annually net of churn. These are best-in-class metrics by any benchmark. One might suspect that large customers could skew this number heavily (WhatsApp is 15% of Twilio's revenue), but even that isn't necessarily a bad thing because their technology is considered essential (WhatsApp isn't even in a long-term contract).

2. They include compelling customer testimonials in their S-1.

Who does that?! Before you even get to the S-1 summary, you see Travis Kalanick—the f'ing CEO of Uber—raving about Twilio. Your welcome, Goldman Sachs. I-bankers dream of an investor roadshow like this.

And just in case you hadn't heard of Uber, Affirm, Nordstrom, or ServiceNow. . . Twilio includes another full page of customer testimonials to hammer home the point.

Diversity FTW. 

What was the financial impact of all this goodness? In short, they crushed it. Twilio is currently valued at $3.12 billion (as of 7/6/16). The 10 million shares Twilio offered at $15 per share ($150MM raise) is now trading at $37.93 per share, or up 153% in 9 trading days.

For the sake of comparison, what has the NASDAQ index done this year? Answer: -2.96%

See that V-shaped low-point in late June? That was the Twilio IPO. You can see the (partial) impact it had on sentiment and investor appetite for tech/SaaS stocks. So while the NASDAQ was taking a cat nap for the first half of 2016, Twilio is a beacon of warmth in a frigid IPO market.

To recap, the Twilio IPO has two powerful lessons for all of us, especially Customer Success folks:

  1. Net expansion is king. If you are a Customer Success executive, or individual contributor, take pride in the fact that your impact on churn reduction and expansion revenue is a HUGE ARBITER of your company's future success.  

  2. Customer stories are compelling. When your company goes public, what customer's would you put on your S-1? Do you have executive relationships that would go to bat for you?

The way your company is valued has changed

The way your company is valued has changed

TL;DR

  • On February 5th the entire tech/SaaS industry got a wake up call: public cloud companies collectively lost $28B in market value on a single day.

  • Valuation models have changed: markets are rewarding software companies with sustainable growth + a path to profitability

  • How tech companies navigate this tectonic shift will determine the success (or failure) of their businesses

By now most people have heard the news: On February 5th the entire tech/SaaS industry got a wake up call: public cloud companies collectively lost $28B in market value on a single day. 

Even Linkedin (LNKD), a company that did $3 billion in sales last year, got hammered from $205 to $100 per share. So for Linkedin, the week looked like this:

  • Feb 1 valuation: $24 billion

  • Feb 9 valuation: $11.8 billion

  • Market cap incinerated: $12.2 billion

To put that another way, Linkedin lost the equivalent of Nicaragua's GDP in a six trading days.

What the hell happened?

Answer: the way your company is valued, changed—particularly for high-growth, SaaS, cloud-based tech companies. Markets are rewarding software companies with sustainable growth + a path to profitability

How did the overall market perform?

  • the S&P 500 was down 5.9% in the three months ending 3/1/16

  • if you look at the light blue and red lines below, you'll see that certain software and SaaS companies were down 26.2% and 24.1%, respectively

Okay, so that happened. But what does that mean going forward?

  • for starters, cash is king. For emphasis, cash is king.

  • these companies are moving (very rapidly) to reduce costs

  • these companies are moving (very rapidly) to improve cash flow

Why are they doing this?

  • to avoid imminent failure

  • to earn a better valuation (see: below chart)

  • the market is clearly awarding higher EV/Sales valuations to companies that expect to be free cash flow positive within one year

And finally we get to the meat of the discussion. What is one to do in navigating this unique—but not unprecedented—market environment? At DBT Ventures we don't try to boil the ocean, but rather focus on four pillars of business:

Ideas

  • Given the market challenges, a CEO would be wise to prioritize ideas that enable your business to 1) reduce costs, or 2) increase output.

  • Focus should be placed on "getting back to basics" and doing the simple things to perfection

  • Company first, team second, individuals third

Data Science

  • Increase data science effort on unit economics, specifically Customer Lifetime Value and empowering your account teams to understand the economic tradeoffs between how they spend their time (company money) and revenue (customer money).

  • It's a great time to kill exploratory projects and double-down on DS initiatives that are closely linked with tangible business value, e.g. prospect's likelihood to buy, customer's likelihood to churn/expand

  • Perform outlier analysis on all company-wide expenses to identify areas of bloated budget with lackluster ROI

Customer Success

  • Scale, scale, scale—alleviate the dependency on 1:1 support engagements

  • Get a tattoo: scaling ≠ hiring

  • Prioritize roles with higher output metrics with an emphasis on automation and 1:many deliverables, e.g. virtual trainings, online resources, personalized email drip campaigns

  • Attack churn proactively to reduce the headwind on top-line growth

  • Set a goal to reduce CRC to 10-15% of revenue, or less

Leadership

  • Adversity is an excellent opportunity to exude strength, resilience, and adherence to your cultural values and ethics

  • Give merit based comp adjustments to top performers to reduce the risk of attrition

  • Take the extra time to celebrate wins as a function, team, department, and company—this investment will help improve dour morale

  • Reward AEs for contracts with payment upfront which will help cash flow

  • Overcommunicate. Do not turtle shell. Your company needs you now more than ever

  • Recognize that "constraint yields creativity" and "necessity is the mother of invention" such that you green-light projects that improve scalable output

  • Lead by example: now is not the time to be lavish or spendy

  • If your goal is to go public, recognize that the median revenue at IPO is $83 million—set goals to achieve this number while imparting a sense of urgency at the executive level. Mindset: "the last round of funding was our last" given VC money has become more stringent.

Go forth and prosper.

Want to blow up your SaaS business? Ignore C4.

Want to blow up your SaaS business? Ignore C4.

Story Highlights:

  • There are MANY SaaS metrics to consider these days. Today we will review "C4"—which includes CLV, CAC, CRC, and Churn—and explain why they matter to a SaaS subscription revenue model.

  • Any one of the C4 elements can blow up a business.

  • Therefore, we must have a deep understanding of C4, how each element is calculated, and what we can do to manage and improve them.

Want to confuse your board along with all your employees? Start by showing them the below table of 59 different SaaS metrics.

These days, SaaS metrics are abundant if not overgrown. Similar to the investment industry, you can go down the metric rabbit-hole pretty quickly before you realize, "Wait a minute, what are we actually trying to accomplish here?"

But there are four key metrics that rule them all. You guessed it: C4. What is C4? 

This explosive composite combines four vital SaaS diagnostics:

  1. CLV: Customer Lifetime Value

  2. CAC: Customer Acquisition Cost

  3. CRC: Customer Retention Cost

  4. Churn

Churn—which typically garners most of the limelight—is the most cancerous, yet easiest to calculate. Churn is typically expressed as either a dollar figure or a percentage of revenue over a certain time period.

For example, let's say a SaaS startup has $1MM in monthly recurring revenue (MRR). Last month, a customer paying $10k/mo churned. Therefore, churn could be expressed as:

  • $10,000 MRR

  • Gross churn = 1%

Simple enough, right?

Churn is insidious, even maddening at times. But once properly understood and effectively managed, churn can materially improve how your run your business. The key is to treat every churned customers as an archeologist might approach a dig. The good stuff is down below, and you'll have to institute a process to have these conversations, diagnose root cause, and ultimately arrive at a LEARNING that will improve how you do business.

For example, you will likely lose a customer for product reasons. Perhaps you lacked the feature, functionality or performance they seek. This information MUST reach the ears of the Product and Engineering teams so that they can prioritize such items in their release planning.

Is there anything worst than a churned customer? Yes: when you fail to learn something as a business. That, in other words, is the greatest disservice of all.

 

 

ROC your world

ROC your world

The importance of statisticians in SaaS

If you're going to explore data science strategies for your SaaS business, you'd be well-served to learn about "ROC curves".

Why?

Because ROC curves assess the quality of data science output. Think of ROC curves as a report card. They help you visualize the quality of the data science deliverable on your desk.

For example, let's say your data science team (or consultants) builds a model to help your sales team identify which prospects are most likely to buy. We'll call it a "Propensity To Buy" score. And since businesses love lingo, we'll call it a "PTB" score. Acronyms, FTW.

 

Two models walk into a startup

To step a quick step back: data science models typically fall into two camps: 1) regression: trying to predict a continuous outcome or variable, or 2) classification: trying to predict a binary outcome. Our fictitious PTB score is therefore a . . . you guessed it, a "classification" model. Nicely done. Now we're getting somewhere.

But how do you objectively assess the quality of something very smart people produced by ingesting dozens if not hundreds of variables and training sets? The ROC curve. Boom.

We can thank WWII radar engineers for the lengthy name: Receiver Operating Characteristic. But their intent was much simpler: they needed a way to know how much of the good stuff their model captured (true positive rate/TPR) vs. the amount of bad stuff their model also captured (false positive rate/FPR).

For example:

  • TPR: Radar imaging model captures a Nazi battalion of Panzer IV tanks = nice work

  • FPR: Radar imaging model captures a herd of very large French cows = needs work

Same goes for business: how many of your prospects are being correctly classified (TPR) vs. incorrectly classified (FPR). Here's a visual of ROC curves look like in the wild:

We'll get into this topic much deeper in future posts, but for now we just wanted to make sure the DBT readership is aware of the crucial tool for assessing data science output.

Click to enlarge